[NLA] Measuring demand and latent demand

[David J. Rosen]

It's good to see a message from you on the NLA list, Sheryl.  It's been 
a while since we've heard your voice here, I think.

Sheryl Gowen wrote:

>David, 
>
>It seems to me that you and Tom are defining demand differently. 
>
Yes.  Tom has been talking about need, I am interested in looking at demand

> You seem to be asking asking how many adults might want literacy services (learner demand). 
>
Yes, and I would want *actual demand* to be measured by the number of 
adults signing up, enrolling for services. Other oral or written 
indications of interest in enrolling might be measures of *latent demand*.

> Tom is asking how many literate workers employers want (labor market demand).
>

I wouldn't call what employers say they want "labor market demand" 
unless employers went beyond just wanting better skilled employees to 
actually changing basic skills hiring standards or providing resources 
for employees to get basic skills services they need to meet their 
standards.  I have seen surveys in which employers say they want (or 
need) highly educated workers, but I haven't seen evidence that they are 
*demanding* these qualifications: that they are lobbying for government 
resources, or using their own resources to pay for educating their 
employees, or changing their hiring standards. I do see evidence that 
they hire more educated workers when there is a good labor supply, but 
when there is a tight labor supply, many hire workers with lower skills. 
 So "labor market demand" as measured by what employers say (rather than 
their actual hiring and training practices) seems to me more like *need* 
(according to employers or to labor market experts) than *demand*.

I think the distinction between *need* (I have found it useful to think 
about need in terms of "who -- needs what --  according to whom" -- and 
especially to pay attention to "according to whom") and *demand* is 
extremely important in our efforts to advocate for adult literacy.  It 
is hard not to be persuaded to act by education demand.  For example, in 
public elementary and secondary education, there is no unmet demand; 
there are no waiting lists for second or sixth grade or any grade in the 
U.S..  I have found that waiting lists for adult literacy and ESL/ESOL 
services -- an indication of demand -- get policy makers' attention 
while reports of need cause their eyes to glaze over.  Part of the 
problem is that the results from the needs studies (whether accurate or 
not) are too discouragingly large for policy makers to tackle. Also. 
policy makers know that not everyone who "needs" the services will in 
fact choose to enroll. But demand studies have moved policy makers to 
action.  It is possible that latent demand studies could have this 
effect, too.  I have not met legislators who are indifferent when they 
learn that adults (especially voters in their district)  have signed up 
for but cannot get basic literacy or ESOL services.

> Policy and allocation of resources seem to be more responsive to labor market demand than to learner demand. 
>
I wonder if this is true for adult education and literacy services. 
 When the labor market demand, as measured by the Bureau of Labor 
Statistics, goes up, I have not seen a groundswell to increase literacy 
(or job training programs).  Have you? If so, directly as a result of 
increased labor market demand? Recently, in Massachusetts, we saw a 
dramatic turnaround in policy and allocation of adult literacy resources 
based, I believe, on the thousands of phone calls legislators received 
from students (and others).  Labor market demand wasn't a persuasive 
argument since there is now a labor surplus in Massachusetts Some argued 
that this is a short-term phenomenon and companies would soon need high 
skilled workers again, but that wasn't what drove the change in policy. 
 It was the huge outcry from students whose classes were being canceled.

> Advocates seem to be, by definition, more concerned with learner demand. The trick seems to be in convincing policy makers that responding to learner demand is of benefit to the labor market. That will require more case-based, longitudinal data on the outcomes and impact of adult education.
>

I agree.  We must show results for those who enroll in adult education 
to improve their economic situation. And we need their employment data 
for evidence. Being able to show these outcomes, or impact,  would be of 
interest to many learners, as well as employers, labor unions and policy 
makers.

David J. Rosen
<DJRosen at theworld.com>



_______________________________________________
NLA mailing list: NLA at lists.literacytent.org
http://lists.literacytent.org/mailman/listinfo/nla
LiteracyTent: web hosting, news, community and goodies for literacy
http://literacytent.org